La gran filtración
Cable en el que se califica a Chávez como un político espabilado
La Embajada de EE UU considera que el presidente venezolano es un político hábil para conseguir sus objetivos
| ID: | 218520 |
| Date: | 2009-07-28 20:53:00 |
| Origin: | 09CARACAS982 |
| Source: | Embassy Caracas |
| Classification: | CONFIDENTIAL |
| Dunno: | 09CARACAS933 |
| Destination: | VZCZCXRO8634 PP RUEHAG RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR DE RUEHCV #0982/01 2092053 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 282053Z JUL 09 FM AMEMBASSY CARACAS TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3463 INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RUEHWH/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS PRIORITY RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY |
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 000982 SIPDIS HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER) E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/27/2024 TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, VE SUBJECT: CHAVEZ DETERMINED TO ACCELERATE HIS REVOLUTION REF: CARACAS 933 CARACAS 00000982 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: CDA JOHN CAULFIELD FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) 1. (C) SUMMARY. President Hugo Chavez appears determined to enact a series of controversial laws covering the electoral process, education, social property, and the criminal penal code that are vital tenets of his Bolivarian Revolution and would further consolidate his power. Many of the laws are repackaged from previous failed legislative efforts that proved too unpopular with the Venezuelan electorate. Chavez likely calculates that now is the time to move forward aggressively and take advantage of the fact that many Venezuelans are unaware of the practical significance of the legislation or may dismiss it as just one more debate in the ongoing dispute between Chavez and the opposition. Additionally, he may be trying to pass the series of unpopular laws in short order and bank on the fact that voters will have accommodated to the new situation by the time elections roll around next year. The opposition will be hard pressed to rally its troops against laws that have yet to be implemented and are hard to comprehend, especially during the summer lull when university students and many in the opposition are on vacation. Chavez can be expected to apply these laws selectively against a limited number of individuals and institutions as an example to the rest. END SUMMARY. ------------------------------------------- ACCELERATING THE REVOLUTION BECAUSE HE CAN ------------------------------------------- 2. (C) Speaking at an event on July 25 commemorating the 10-year anniversary of the National Assembly's effort to rewrite Venezuela's constitution, Chavez said he is willing to rule by decree to push through new "revolutionary" laws, and called on legislators to accelerate the country's path to socialism. These controversial laws cover issues such as the electoral process, education, social property, and the criminal code that would allow the government further control of almost all aspects of Venezuelan life. Contacts in the political opposition and local academic community had already expected the National Assembly to pass these laws in the coming months to take advantage of the summer lull when most Venezuelans are focused on their vacations. They tell us that because Chavez already has total control of the rubber stamp Assembly, the manner of how the laws are enacted is not as important as the fact that he is determined to enact them. Chavez has called for the passage of all of these laws by December 15, the 10-year anniversary of the enactment of the country's "Bolivarian" constitution. 3. (C) The electoral law would limit the ability of small political parties to claim legislative seats at all levels of government and would almost certainly increase Chavez's chances of retaining a majority in the National Assembly after elections expected in late 2010. This law would appear to weaken previous safeguards on the transparency of the electoral process and secrecy of the vote and would give unprecedented discretion to the Chavez-dominated National Electoral Council. The education law (REFTEL) is expected to further politicize the official curriculum along socialist lines and make it harder for independent minded teachers and administrators to obtain jobs in public schools. The social property law has been dubbed the "Cuban Law" by critics who claim the new rule would allow the government to expropriate individual homes and businesses. The penal code reform would expand state control over criminal proceedings and, most controversially, require banks and telecommunications companies to record and make available to state officials all phone calls, emails, and banking transactions in Venezuela. We will report on all of these laws in more detail via SEPTEL. ------------------- BACK TO THE FUTURE ------------------- 4. (SBU) Many of the "new" laws currently in front of the National Assembly are vital tenets of Chavez's Bolivarian Revolution but are repackaged from the unsuccessful December 2007 referendum and other failed legislative efforts that proved too unpopular with the Venezuelan electorate. A 2001 proposal to reform the country's under-performing education system galvanized the opposition, led to massive street demonstrations by parents, teachers, and school administrators, and was one of the catalysts for the April CARACAS 00000982 002.2 OF 002 2002 coup. The penal code reform contains the spirit of the deeply unpopular "Ley Sapo" (Snitch Law) that Chavez passed by decree in May 2008 and then subsequently revoked due to public backlash. Elements of the social property law were first proposed as a modification to the constitution that was defeated in the December 2007 referendum. Critics say the National Assembly wants to appear to be introducing less radical versions of the laws to tamp down potential adverse public reaction. 5. (C) Our contacts admit that the opposition will not be able to organize itself formally to protest these impending laws until at least October when university students return to campus and Venezuelans are back from vacation. They add that Chavez has a track record of passing controversial laws during the summer months and likely judges that the initial outcry after the laws are passed will long be forgotten by the time of National Assembly elections scheduled for late next year. Noted Venezuelan pollster Luis Vicente Leon told poloffs on July 21 that there has been no public backlash against the pending legislation because opposition media outlets have relatively little penetration among the populace, and therefore most Venezuelans are not aware of what the Assembly is about to pass. He said this is why Chavez has been cracking down on radio stations in recent weeks; these stations have a wider reach among Venezuelans, and Chavez must target these outlets to keep awareness low and to better control his message. 6. (C) Leon's comments echoed those of other academics and opposition party officials who note that both the penal code and the electoral law are complicated issues that many Venezuelans do not understand, or may dismiss as simply another dispute in the ongoing battle between the opposition and the Chavez government. COPEI Secretary General Alejandro Vivas confirmed to Poloffs in mid-July that the opposition will not be able to do much more than take note of and monitor the laws' passage before trying to mount a more organized opposition this fall. Nevertheless, he highlighted the importance of challenging these laws through legal and institutional means. He noted that even though state institutions are effectively subservient to the executive branch, these institutions will be around after Chavez leaves office, and the opposition needs to be on record doing what they can to challenge these laws through all means at their disposal. ------- COMMENT ------- 7. (C) Chavez is a savvy politician skilled at calibrating and re-calibrating his political strategy to advance controversial legislation and achieve his policy goals. Whether because of worsening economic conditions, the absence of a viable political rival, or a time period of about a year before the next scheduled elections, Chavez likely calculates that now is the time to move forward aggressively to implement his agenda and accelerate his revolution. The laws currently in front of the Assembly represent some of the most controversial legislation of Chavez's rule, but they also form the backbone of his political ideology. In attempting to pass these laws in short order, Chavez runs the risk of going too far too fast, but his likely selective implementation against a limited number of individuals and institutions may help maintain complacency among the Venezuelan electorate. The opposition is very worried about the impending legislation, but they will be hard pressed to rally more than pro forma opposition to laws that have yet to be implemented, are difficult to comprehend, and are easily lost among the constant din of Chavez's "revolution." CAULFIELD |
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