Cómo nos ven los estadounidenses
Cable sobre los nombramientos de Rubalcaba y Alonso como ministros
"Zapatero ha colocado a dos aliados clave mientras prosigue con su estrategia sobre ETA tras el alto el fuego". "Rubalcaba ha sido el verdadero cerebro en esa política. Lo refuerza en ese papel".
| ID: | 59803 |
| Date: | 2006-04-07 15:48:00 |
| Origin: | 06MADRID857 |
| Source: | Embassy Madrid |
| Classification: | CONFIDENTIAL |
| Dunno: | |
| Destination: | VZCZCXRO6319 PP RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHMRE RUEHROV RUEHSR DE RUEHMD #0857/01 0971548 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 071548Z APR 06 FM AMEMBASSY MADRID TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9363 INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 4933 RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0921 RUEHLA/AMCONSUL BARCELONA 1843 RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC RUCNFB/FBI WASHDC RUEAHLC/HOMELAND SECURITY CENTER WASHINGTON DC RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC RUCNOSC/ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY COOPERATION IN EUROPE |
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MADRID 000857 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2015 TAGS: PGOV, PREL, SP SUBJECT: SPAIN: ZAPATERO ANNOUNCES SURPRISE CHANGES TO CABINET MADRID 00000857 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission J. Robert Manzanares; Reasons 1. 4 (B) and (D). 1. (SBU) Summary. In a surprise announcement April 7, President Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero named new Defense, Interior and Education Ministers. Jose Bono is out as Defense Minister, to be replaced by Jose Antonio Alonso who moves over from his post as Interior Minister. Current Socialist spokesman in Parliament and member of Zapatero's inner circle, Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba, will take over the Interior Ministry and Mercedes Cabrera Calvo-Sotelo will replace Maria Jesus San Segundo as Minster of Education. The cabinet changes are the first since Zapatero and the Socialist Party (PSOE) took office following the March 2004 elections. The Ambassador called Bono and Alonso to thank them for their work with the U.S. Bono expressed his admiration for the U.S. and said he was uncertain what he would be doing next. Alonso said that had a good relationship with U.S. officials as Minister of Interior and was used to cooperating with the USG. Alonso also said the U.S. should expect "no negative surprises" from him as Minister of Defense and suggested that he and the Ambassador meet immediately after the Easter holidays for a comprehensive review of U.S.-Spain defense issues. The Ambassador was unable to reach Rubalcaba, but will speak with him as soon as possible to offer continued close counterterrorism communication. End Summary. //THE ETA FACTOR// 2. (C) Embassy's initial analysis on the Interior and Defense Ministry changes is that Zapatero's ETA policy is the driving force, although there is some speculation that Bono himself asked to leave and this is a shuffle forced on Zapatero. Whatever the cause, Zapatero has put into place key allies as he pursues his strategy with ETA following the March 26 announcement of a ceasefire. Rubalcaba has been the brain trust on the ETA policy and putting him in place as Interior Minister solidifies his role and gives him the authority to devise and implement Zapatero's policies on ETA, while ensuring political control over police actions against ETA. 3. (C) Moving Alonso to Defense removes Bono -- a longtime rival of Zapatero. Bono has not been seen as favorable towards Zapatero's policies favoring increased powers for Spain's regions. This puts Alonso -- a close personal friend of Zapatero -- into a key position as Zapatero consolidates his political support and moves his ETA strategy forward. Zapatero's popularity has increased considerably and he likely feels he no longer needs to keep Bono close to him. However, free from the restraint that comes in being in government, Bono may be a wildcard for Zapatero on the political scene. //CHANGES AT MOD// 4. (C) The change at the MOD is important for the US, given the extent of our Defense relationship with the GOS. While not necessarily in any "pro-US" camp, Alonso has been favorable to cooperation with the US on counter-terrorism. He has visited the US in his role as Interior Minister and has met with Attorney General Alberto Gonzales and FBI Director Robert Mueller -- both in Spain and in the US. The Ambassador has a cordial relationship with Alonso and the Embassy works well with his staff. These relationships could be helpful as Alonso assumes his new role at Defense. 5. (C) Moving Alonso to Defense will likely mean there will be other changes in the ministry as well, although it may take until June to see all the changes that could take place. A PSOE official in the Ministry told the Embassy that the military leadership is unlikely to be affected by the change. However, Alonso has been interested for quite some time in removing Civil Guard Director General Gomez Arruche, so Arruche's days may be numbered. Other sources tell us that Alberto Saiz, the head of the Spanish Intelligence Service (the CNI, which falls under the MOD) might be replaced, as he was directly appointed by Bono and was considered a strong Bono ally. MADRID 00000857 002.2 OF 002 6. (C) Sources also said Bono has been "feeling uncomfortable" in the Defense Ministry for "a long time." Spanish media is reporting that Bono might be done with politics for good, but post thinks that unlikely. With Bono out of the picture, a PSOE advisor told the Embassy that the "Moratinos line on foreign policy has obtained a victory." Though Bono has portrayed himself and is widely seen as a "friend" of the US, his actions on Venezuela defense sales, the Spanish troop withdrawal from Iraq and other issues sometimes belie this image. //CHANGES AT MOI// 7. (C) A Partido Popular (PP) advisor told the Embassy that Rubalcaba is unlikely to make many changes at Interior because many of "his people" are already in place. MFA Director General for North America and Europe, Jose Pons, told the DCM that one or two key Interior officials (such as Antonio Camacho, currently serving as Alonso's deptuty) may be headed to Defense with Alonso. Rubalcaba is not known as a friend of the US; however, he may well see it in his interest to continue the CT cooperation with the US that was put in place by his predecessor. Rubalcaba is seen as smart and experienced and has the skills necessary to influence people. Tapping him for Minster of Interior is proof positive that Zapatero is serious about succeeding with ETA. //PP REACTION// 8. (C) Popular Party leader Mariano Rajoy wasted little time in criticizing the selection of Rubalcaba as Interior Minister (stating bluntly that the PP "does not trust Rubalcaba") and lamenting Bono's departure. Rajoy's comments on Rubalcaba reflect Rubalcaba's reputation as a skilled, and highly partisan, political actor who has worked hard to outmaneuver and isolate the PP. Bono, on the other hand, is among the most conservative PSOE leaders so it is understandable that the PP would be sad to see him go. He agreed with the PP in opposing greater autonomy to the Catalan or Basque regions and was seen by the PP as a brake on Zapatero's readiness to deal with the regional governments. Interestingly, a PP think tank speculated that Alonso was moved to the MOD in part because Alonso had developed good relations with U.S. counterparts during his stint as Interior Minister. The think tank contrasted Bono's "strident positions within Spain and abroad" with Alonso's ability to inspire confidence both within Spain and with the USG. //COMMENT// 9. (C) Comment: Zapatero has installed two of his closest allies into key positions in his cabinet. Neither one runs the risk of being seen as a political competitor of Zapatero -- one of the problems that contributed to Bono's departure. Both Alonso and Rubalcaba will carry out Zapatero's strategy with ETA to the letter -- a strategy that is no doubt directed at winning the next national elections with an absolute majority. Political observers were impressed that Zapatero organized the cabinet reshuffle in complete secrecy. Clearly, Zapatero is using this cabinet shuffle, whatever the cause, to move swiftly to take advantage of recent victories and has consolidated his control over his government and the Socialist Party. AGUIRRE |
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