Cable en el que el Gobierno argentino promete a los banqueros que no vigilará si se conceden o no los préstamos
El embajador estadounidense relata confidencias que le hacen los grandes banqueros argentinos
| ID: | 192180 |
| Date: | 2009-02-13 19:43:00 |
| Origin: | 09BUENOSAIRES163 |
| Source: | Embassy Buenos Aires |
| Classification: | CONFIDENTIAL |
| Dunno: | |
| Destination: | VZCZCXYZ0001 RR RUEHWEB DE RUEHBU #0163/01 0441943 ZNY CCCCC ZZH R 131943Z FEB 09 FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3054 INFO RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC RHMFISS/DEPT OF ENERGY WASHINGTON DC RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC |
C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 000163 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2019 TAGS: ECON, EFIN, EINV, EAGR, AR SUBJECT: TOP ARGENTINE BANKER SEES CHALLENGES AHEAD Classified By: Ambassador E. Anthony Wayne for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). 1. (C) Ambassador lunched February 11 with Jorge Brito, President of Argentina's Banco Macro and also President of the Association of Argentine-owned private banks (ADEBA). Though Brito has good relations with the Argentine government, in private he is frank in his criticisms. Brito offered several insights, which follow below. 2. (C) IMF: The Argentine government could be interested in re-engaging with the IMF if the IMF reforms as a result of the financial crisis and subsequent reform efforts (such as the G-20). The Kirchners are not deeply ideological on this, he said, but ultimately pragmatic: if they need money and they can get it from the IMF with lessened conditionality (not without any), they would consider finding a way to reengage. Brito noted that the government could well need additional funds in the coming years, and that people are quietly thinking through what might be needed to bring about a new relation with the IMF. 3. (SBU) Social Pact and the "Campo": President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK) is thinking of trying to launch a new meeting of the social and economic council bringing together business, financial, labor, and agricultural groups to discuss how to cope with the global economic crisis. If this is a back door way to re-engage with the farm sector, it could be a very important initiative. The biggest domestic challenge facing the government is how to deal with the agricultural sector and to avoid a new conflict. 4. (SBU) Argentine Economy: In Brito's view, the economy should be able to get through this year with positive growth, between 0 and 2%, but the social climate, agricultural trade, and trade with Brazil will be vital. 5. (SBU) Soy prices and production will be key for the performance of the Argentine economy this year. If prices and production are good, then the economy overall will do fine. The other big factor is the exchange rate with Brazil and the effects on trade. This, the banker argued, is more important that the dollar-peso exchange rate for effects on the real economy. The third big factor for the economy this year is wage negotiations, which begin in March. If these do not result in inordinate salary increases, it will be very positive for the economy. 6. (C) The overall inflation rate is slowing a bit, but what is really important is the inflation rate for blue-collar workers. They form the base of the government's support and, of course, the prices affecting them are what really motivate labor unions in wage negotiations. 7. (C) To date, the government's various programs to spur consumption have had little or no real effect. Most of the President's initiatives announced over the last two months are not functioning, and the President is very upset with her ministers because of this. 8. (C) The government's implementing regulations for the new capital repatriation law seem adequate in terms of providing controls to limit the use of this law to launder money. However, he noted that the law is not likely to bring much capital back to the country in the short term. In a couple of years, if things are stable, the new law could serve as a channel for significant capital inflow. But, in general, Argentines with capital will not send it back unless they see a stable investment climate. 9. (C) Bio note: Jorge Brito was born in 1952 and graduated from the Universidad Catolica Argentina, and worked for many different financial institutions, including Citicorp, before taking over Banco Macro. He is considered by many to be a great Argentine success story. He took a small financing company, Compania Financiera Macro, and turned it into Banco Macro, one of Argentina's most powerful private banks. He did this through numerous acquisitions, particularly during the mid- to late-1990s, when it started buying up recently privatized provincial banks, and also during the high-risk times following the 2001-02 financial crisis and sovereign debt default. With these acquisitions, Macro has over 5,000 employees and 423 branches, and is listed on the New York Stock Exchange as Grupo Macro. His detractors allege that his success is mostly due to his close links with powerful politicians and businessmen. He was reportedly one of the main contributors to the Menem administration, but has also been able to maintain close ties to the Kirchners. In fact, he is thought by some to be the closest advisor to the Kirchners from the Argentine financial sector. This may in part be because, as President of ADEBA, he has studiously pursued a strategy of never criticizing the government in public, and only working behind the scenes to encourage more financial sector-friendly policies. Brito has six children, four sons and two daughters. Four of them work various positions in his bank. WAYNE |
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