Enfermedad de Fidel Castro
Cable con nuevas especulaciones sobre los efectos sociales de la enfermedad de Castro
En enero de 2009, la Embajada de EE UU no anticipa manifestaciones o emigración masiva si muere Fidel Castro
| ID: | 187408 |
| Date: | 2009-01-15 17:22:00 |
| Origin: | 09HAVANA35 |
| Source: | US Interests Section Havana |
| Classification: | SECRET |
| Dunno: | 08HAVANA969 |
| Destination: | VZCZCXYZ0000 OO RUEHWEB DE RUEHUB #0035/01 0151722 ZNY SSSSS ZZH O 151722Z JAN 09 FM USINT HAVANA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4042 INFO RUCOWCV/CCGDSEVEN MIAMI FL PRIORITY RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RHMFISS/COGARD INTELCOORDCEN WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RHMFISS/NAVINTELOFC GUANTANAMO BAY CU PRIORITY RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RUEAORC/US CUSTOMS AND BORDER PROTECTION WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RUMIAAA/USCINCSO MIAMI FL PRIORITY RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY 0015 |
S E C R E T HAVANA 000035 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/14/2019 TAGS: PINS, PGOV, PINR, SMIG, PREL, CU SUBJECT: THE SPECULATION ON FIDEL'S HEALTH REF: 08 HAVANA 969 Classified By: COM Jonathan Farrar for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 1. (C) SUMMARY: Fidel Castro's extended absence from public view, especially during the celebration of the 50th anniversary of the revolution, combined with the long time since he has written one of his occasional "Reflections" pieces is prompting speculation in the international press that his health has taken a turn for the worse. Comments by Venezuelan President Chavez that Fidel will never be seen again have caused some to speculate that he may already be dead. There is, of course, no mention of this in local Cuban press and the rumor mill on the street is subdued, if not silent, on the issue. Whatever the situation, from our vantage point the likelihood of a substantial short term effect on migration or security in Cuba is small, even if the Comandante's death is announced. WHAT WE KNOW NOW 2. (C) Fidel has not written a "Reflection" piece since December 15. Especially given the significance of the 50th anniversary of the revolution on January 1, this is unusual. The celebrations themselves were surprisingly subdued, confined to a short ceremony featuring President Raul Castro in Santiago (reftel). It also appears true that Fidel was not seen by the latest in a continuing stream of international visitors: Presidents Torrijos of Panama and Correa of Ecuador. It is particularly noteworthy that Correa did not see him, as he is considered an up and comer within the South American left. Fidel was last photographed with Chinese President Hu Jintao in November. In the picture he appeared alert, but thin and weak. Were it not for the 50th anniversary celebration, Fidel's current absence would not have generated as much speculation in the international press. He has gone silent for extended periods on other occasions since he stepped out of public view in July 2006. But each time he reemerged after speculation about his condition in the foreign press reached a certain crescendo. 3. (C) Perhaps because the Cuban public has grown accustomed to false alarms over the past two years, while the level of speculation in the international press has increased, the local rumor mill is not producing much more than usual. We remain in regular contact with members of the dissident movement, and none has detected anything out of the ordinary in the past few weeks. The ongoing crackdown against their activities, which went into high gear following the hurricanes last fall, continues unabated. We have noticed no notable change in the local security posture in Havana, e.g., no additional police on the street or obvious military movements. AND WHAT WILL HAPPEN WHEN HE IS DEAD? 4. (S) At this point, we do not believe the announcement of Fidel's death would alter the local security situation in any significant way. GOC officials would most likely manage the death announcement and subsequent funeral arrangements, etc., in great detail with a view towards putting the best face on the situation, both domestically and to the world. Utmost care will be given to ensuring that the Cuban public understands that Raul and the rest of the GOC remain in firm control. The event will be treated with appropriate solemnity, but also designed to achieve maximum propaganda value. It is probable that no announcement will be made until the GOC feels confident that all preparations have been made in accordance with the preceding. 5. (S) We do not believe the announcement of Fidel's death will spark either violent demonstrations or a quick surge in migration. The security arrangements noted in the previous paragraph and the Cuban people's generally conservative nature after 50 years of repression, combined with still significant admiration for Fidel personally, argue against short term disturbances. Far from generating a surge in migration, the announcement of his death could cause a drop in such activity as Cubans wait to see if Fidel's passing brings any change to the island. 6. (S) USINT has reviewed its procedures for dealing with the death of Fidel and is prepared to deal with potential contingencies. FARRAR |
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