Aznar y el PP
Cable que habla del ocultamiento de Aznar por el PP para las elecciones europeas de 2004
Junio de 2004. Alfredo Timmermans: "Muchos en el partido quieren que Aznar se quede en casa y no diga nada. Él entiende que es políticamente radiactivo"
| ID: | 17772 |
| Date: | 2004-06-14 12:17:00 |
| Origin: | 04MADRID2215 |
| Source: | Embassy Madrid |
| Classification: | CONFIDENTIAL |
| Dunno: | |
| Destination: | This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available. |
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MADRID 002215 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/14/2014 TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PTER, SP, European Union, Popular Party SUBJECT: AZNAR KEPT UNDER WRAPS IN EU PARLIAMENT ELECTION CAMPAIGN CENTERED ON IRAQ, US TIES Classified By: Polcouns Kathleen Fitzpatrick, per 1.4 (b) and (d). Summary 1. (C) Jose Maria Aznar did not participate in the Popular Party's campaign for the June 13 EU parliamentary election. With the Socialists making the war in Iraq and distancing Spanish foreign policy from the US their central campaign issues, Popular Party leaders decided that Aznar was too radioactive to help in the campaign. Aznar insiders tell us that Aznar recognized this as well, but is confident time will ultimately vindicate his policies. Many in the PP regarded Aznar's May visit to the US, which included a private meeting with President Bush, as inopportune. They believe the visit give the Socialists ammunition in their efforts to portray the PP as a tool of the US. Following his US visit, Aznar avoided the media and focused on presiding over the PP think tank (FAES) and learning English in preparation for speaking engagements. On June 13, the Popular Party succeeded in beating expectations and came within two points of the Socialists in the EU election. End Summary. Aznar Radioactive 2. (C) Aznar's longtime associate and former State Secretary for Communication Alfredo Timmermans told us recently that Aznar's decision to play no public role in the June 13 EU parliament election campaign was his choice, but that it also reflected the preference of PP leaders. The Socialists (PSOE) sought a repeat of their March 14 surprise election victory and played up themes that had worked for them, notably opposition to the Iraq war and Aznar's close relations with the US. Timmermans said that Aznar was fully aware that he was politically radioactive and, as a result, kept a low profile. His only public activities were to appear at signings of new his book recounting his years in office. (Timmermans noted sales are going well and the book is now in its second printing.) "Photo of the Azores" 3. (C) A Socialist refrain from the EU parliament election campaign was the need to correct "the photo of the Azores." To them, the March 2003 Azores summit stands for committing Spain to an Iraq conflict that the Spanish public wanted no part of and for allying with the US instead of France and Germany. 4. (C) For this reason, there was unease in the PP when Aznar visited the US in May 2004, only weeks after stepping down from office. While PP leaders stated that Aznar had a right to travel where he wished, many, including Aznar loyalists, felt that given the EU election Aznar should have postponed the trip until after June 13. Timmermans told us that many in the PP wanted Aznar to "stay home and say nothing." Timmermans said Aznar understood that he is, for the present, a divisive figure but that he is confident time will vindicate his policies toward Iraq and the US. Timmermans said Aznar was buoyed by the warm reception he received in the US and, in particular, by his meeting with President Bush. Timmermans contrasted this warmth with the reticence Aznar has encountered from some in the Popular Party since March 14. Aznar's Messages to the US 5. (C) Timmermans noted that Aznar had expressed concern to President Bush that the March 11 Madrid terrorist attacks had sent a message to terrorists that they can influence elections. Aznar urged vigilance in advance of US elections. Aznar believes al Qaeda inspired terrorists might also target countries like Italy where public opinion is vulnerable. Timmermans said Aznar believes the US has to brace for continued bad news from Iraq and came away with the impression that some US observers may be too optimistic about the medium term outlook. Timmermans said an election defeat by President Bush in November would be read, rightly or wrongly, in Spain as a defeat for the Popular Party and would give the Socialists a boost. 6. (C) Timmermans said the PP, Aznar included, continues to be "astonished" by the chain of events from the March 11 terrorist attacks to surprise election defeat on March 14. Many Popular Party members, Timmermans said, blame Aznar's Iraq policy for the defeat and believe Aznar gambled with the party's future on Iraq and lost. Like other Spaniards (80 percent according to some polls), most PP members were not sorry to see the Spanish troops come home, Timmermans said. 7. (C) Timmermans underlined that Aznar remains unyielding in his beliefs. Aznar will continue to support the Iraq war and say publicly that the Madrid terrorist attacks on March 11 brought the Socialists to power. Timmermans (speaking before June 13) noted that President Zapatero is still in the honeymoon phase and thus the PSOE would have an important electoral advantage. Zapatero has not had to make any unpopular decisions and his one major decision ) to pull the troops out ) was highly popular. Timmermans said that all of Zapatero's decisions are taken with one idea in mind: doing what is popular. Aznar's Future 8. (C) Aznar is confident that in the longer term, he will be vindicated, Timmermans said. However, the current period is a difficult one for the PP and for Aznar personally. In the coming year, Aznar intends to travel frequently to the US. While based in Spain, he will make speeches to US audiences and teach occasional seminars at Georgetown. Aznar is working hard on his English and is presiding over the Popular Party think tank, FAES. Timmermans said Aznar will make it a point to speak out in favor of the transatlantic link and the need for close relations with the United States. June 13: PP Exceeds Expectations, On Road to Recovery 9. (C) Popular Party strategists told us in the run up to the June 13 election that the PP goal was to keep the race close. None said that they expected to win, but they did hope to cut the Socialist margin. Polling had given the Socialists a 6 to 9 point advantage. The June 13 result was far tighter: the Socialists won by only two points. PP leaders regard this as a relative victory. Jorge Moragas, PP Director for International Affairs, told us that the result at least succeeded in giving a "shock" to the over-confidence of the Socialists and is a signal the PP is on the road to recovery. MANZANARES |
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