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Latest CIS opinion poll gives Socialists more than 30% of the vote

The party of caretaker Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez would still, however, fall short of an absolute majority, meaning new attempts at a deal with Unidas Podemos would be needed

From left to right: Pedro Sánchez (PSOE), Pablo Casado (PP), Albert Rivera (Ciudadanos), Pablo Iglesias (UP) and Santiago Abascal (Vox).
From left to right: Pedro Sánchez (PSOE), Pablo Casado (PP), Albert Rivera (Ciudadanos), Pablo Iglesias (UP) and Santiago Abascal (Vox).

The Socialist Party (PSOE) would be the clear winner of the upcoming November 10 general election, with 32% of the vote and between 133 and 150 seats in the 350-seat Congress, Spain’s lower house of parliament. That’s according to the latest poll released today by the public CIS research insistute.

According to the most favorable data from the survey for caretaker Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, the PSOE would emerge from the general election with an absolute majority of 176 seats if he had the support of the left-wing anti-austerity Unidas Podemos bloc. He could also, according to the survey, achieve an absolute majority with the seats of center-right Ciudadanos (Citizens).

The survey was done before the Supreme Court ruling on the Catalan separatists

The November vote will be the fourth general election in Spain in four years, with the last taking place as recently as April. That poll saw Sánchez win the most seats – a total of 123 – but fall short of a majority. Months of negotiations to form a government with the key support of Unidas Podemos eventually came to nothing, while other parties – including Ciudadanos – refused to even consider supporting the PSOE.

This latest survey was carried out between September 21 and October 13, which is before the Supreme Court ruling that jailed nine pro-Catalan independence leaders was released. That judgment prompted days of protests and sometimes violent disturbances across Catalonia. The polling was also completed before the PSOE’s plan to exhume former Spanish dictator Francisco Franco from the Valley of the Fallen monument was completed. Internally, the PSOE believes that finally removing Franco from his resting place will be a vote winner on November 10.

CIS poll results. Absolute majority 176.
CIS poll results. Absolute majority 176.

The latest CIS poll is the best result that the PSOE has seen in the recent surveys. The conservative Popular Party (PP), meanwhile, which saw its worst result ever at the April 28 general election, is predicted to take 18.1% of the vote, according to the survey released today. This would be an improvement on the last election, and would give them between 74 and 81 deputies in Congress.

Unidas Podemos would come in third place with 14.6% of the vote, and between 37 and 45 seats in Congress, a similar result to the 42 seats it took in the April election. And Ciudadanos would come in fourth with 10.6% of the vote, and between 14 and 21 seats in Congress. In April it won 57 seats at the ballot boxes.

Far-right Vox is predicted by the CIS poll to take 7.9% of the vote, which would give it between 14 and 21 seats – in April it took 24.

Today’s survey was based on 17,650 interviews, carried out in 1,091 municipalities in 50 provinces, as well as Spain’s North African cities Ceuta and Melilla. The margin of error is plus or minus 0.75% for the entire sample.

English version by Simon Hunter.

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