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Podemos would overtake Socialists at new election, voter poll shows

CIS survey suggests overall outcome of fresh vote would be similar to that at December poll

Podemos supera a PSOE según el CIS
Pedro Sánchez's Socialist Party would perform less well if a new election were held in Spain.

If a fresh general election were held tomorrow, the conservative Popular Party (PP) would win again, a new poll by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) shows.

The survey has acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy down as the winner with 28.7% of the vote, practically identical to what he obtained at the inconclusive December 20 election.

The picture painted by this new survey is that Spain’s political scenario would remain largely unchanged

But a new vote would hurt the Socialist Party (PSOE), which came in second with 22.1% in December but would fall back to 20.5% in a hypothetical new election.

Meanwhile, anti-austerity party Podemos and its regional allies’ share of the vote would reach 21.9%, up from 20.66% on December 20.

The other emerging party, Ciudadanos, would fall back slightly from 13.9% to 13.3%.

People voting at the December 20 general election.
People voting at the December 20 general election.

Ultimately, the picture that emerges from this new voting intention survey is that Spain’s political scenario would remain largely unchanged, forcing parties to negotiate in order to reach governing coalitions – or at least ensure enough support for a candidate to get voted in as prime minister and form a minority government.

The poll was conducted in early January, just as Congress was electing its new speaker and governing board. Political leaders had not yet met with King Felipe VI as part of the protocol ahead of the investiture session, and Socialist leader Pedro Sánchez had not been asked by the monarch to bid for the post. Nor had news erupted about the new corruption case affecting the PP in the Valencia region.

The survey has an error margin of 2%.

English version by Susana Urra.