Leadership contest
Zapatero will not be running in 2012, but there is no need to call early elections, as the PP would like
Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero will not be standing for a third term in the 2012 general elections. The announcement was made at a meeting of the Socialist Party over the weekend, and finally put an end to rumors over Zapatero's future. His decision mirrors that of his Popular Party predecessor, José María Aznar, and it now seems likely that a maximum of two prime ministerial terms will become the norm in Spanish politics.
Zapatero has left his decision to the very last moment; had he waited any longer, the question of his staying or leaving would have overshadowed the regional and municipal elections, which will take place on May 22.
Now begins the contest to replace him. Clearly hoping to avoid any infighting during the electoral campaign, Zapatero said over the weekend that he has called an extraordinary meeting for after the polls that would pave the way for primaries to decide on a new leader for the party.
The opposition Popular Party (PP) is calling for early elections. In doing so, it seems not to have understood that Zapatero's decision addresses the needs of his party. As long as the Socialists retain a parliamentary majority, the prime minister has no need to call early elections. Everything points to Zapatero having made sure before making his announcement that he could rely on the necessary support from the Catalan and Basque nationalists between now and the end of his legislature.
Zapatero's decision not to stand again should not invite assessments of his performance during his two terms in office. Instead, we should be looking closely at what he intends to do while still in office. The measures he has proposed are vital for the country, but will doubtless prove electorally unpopular.
The Socialist Party will decide on Zapatero's successor through primary elections. This mechanism, which until now has divided the party's leadership, has produced a solution to the main problem facing the Socialists since Zapatero began to cast doubt on whether he would continue in office three months ago. Zapatero remains prime minister and leader of his party, and will occupy those two posts while his successor is elected. By postponing the nomination of the party's candidate in the 2012 polls until after the May elections, Zapatero will be able to take responsibility for what is likely to be a serious drubbing, thus leaving whoever takes over with a reasonably clean start. What's more, it avoids the May elections becoming some kind of referendum on whoever takes over.
But by having left the decision so late, Zapatero exposes the Socialists to other risks. If the primaries get dirty, with the party split over the succession issue, this could well end up influencing the party's vote in the general elections. And while it may make sense for only one candidate to come forward, the Socialist Party would then face accusations from the PP that for all its criticism of the opposition party's tradition of the outgoing leader personally choosing a successor ? rather than doing so through primaries, as happens in most other democracies ? the Socialist Party is no different.
If the Socialists want to counter this criticism, then they will be obliged to carry out a twin exercise in internal democracy and transparency. This will also mean that the candidates taking part in primaries would have to play fair.
If the Socialist Party is able to resolve the succession issue adroitly, as well as who its other principal candidates will be next year, it will have made a virtue out of necessity, a virtue that all of Spain's political parties could do with applying.
